8 June 2012 @64% -- which seems low to me, given the situation in Greece http://ff.im/W6J8E and Spain. See http://www.intrade.com/v4... for 2012 and 2013 year-end markets. \\ “The numbers on Intrade are an incredibly quick and useful way of figuring out what the average expert opinion is on a given subject,” says Justin Wolfers, a visiting professor of economics at Princeton, who has studied Intrade and other prediction markets. While “most political discourse is qualitative — you say, ‘this is likely to happen for these reasons’ — this is quantitative,” he observes. http://www.nytimes.com/2012... \\ Duh, like putting money in your mouth. - Adriano

"A prediction market gives people an incentive, a clear personal incentive, to be right and not wrong. Equally important, it gives people an incentive to shut up when they don’t know, which is often a problem with many of our other institutions." --Robin Hanson, economist at George Mason University - Adriano

Game theoretic instability: "Europe will not survive if we do not show enough solidarity, but it won't survive either if too much solidarity is shown." --Guido Westerwelle - Adriano

18 June 2012 @59% after yesterday's Greek election which affirms their commitment to the euro and the austerity bailout program. - Adriano

26 July 2012 @65% but cf. Citi’s chief economist Willem Buiter: "We now believe the probability that Greece will leave EMU in the next 12-18 months is about 90%, up from our previous 50-75% estimate, and believe the most likely date is in the next 2-3 quarters." #grexit http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog... - Adriano