Yes, welcome to Ordos and 2009. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

China has being building vacant cities to maintain their productivity numbers for years, it was only a matter of time. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

Heh, yeah, well "it's only a matter of time" is not actionable knowledge. "Could shock the global economy within six months," may be. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

It's certainly actionable if you can gauge and monitor it. Knowing there is an issue is the first and biggest step of the battle. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

No, not really. Often in investing, knowing that something may happen down the line will cost you big time while you wait for it to happen. Sometimes more knowledge doesn't equate to better outcomes. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

Or you could be like 90% of America in 2008, even though we were broadcasting the information necessary to monitor the situation since 2005. You completely skipped over the fact that a matter of time, means it's likely to happen, but the situation needs to be monitored. You can make decisions on a quarterly, biquarterly, annual, or longer-term based on what you know and can observe. If you observe nothing, you're blind and can't orient yourself. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

Yeah, well "buy and hold" is marketed to mainstream investors about as well as "pay 2 to 3 times monthly salary on a diamond ring" is to prospective suitors. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

And if you observe the wrong things, you are acting on false information. There are lots of ways to screw up investing. I should know. I've done most of them. And few ways to win. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

Well, when you're watching countless cities being built with noone to work or live in them, and several countries are accusing you of monetary manipulation; I doubt those signals are false information. I personally wouldn't trade on a rumor without looking into it. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

China's super rich oligarchy will (like America's) demand protection from their own excess. China may be able to placate rural poor and urban sweatshop worker while still paying the shadow debt but it seems a gamble. I'm guessing they drop one of those chain saws their juggling #Boom - WarLord

You might be smarter than the markets, Jimminy, but I have learned that I am not. If you looked at China in 2009 and thought that bad things were going to happen to the global economy, you would have lost out (as I did) on significant gains that followed. In other words, it's the opposite of actionable knowledge. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

I'm certainly not smarter than the markets. No, you can know something bad's going to happen somewhere, but still be bullish on sectors. In 2010-2011 I could definitely see investing in component manufacturers. China as a whole, you avoid, but there are, even now, diamonds to be found. I prefer to focus on how well a stock will likely look 1 year from now. There are periods in between to change your mind. Since I don't have any capital to invest, I play a game on Google Finance where every September I add $10k, and rebalance the portfolio. As of right now, my biggest loss has been mispredicting how far Apple could fall, and picking up ARR on someone's ;) recommendation without thoroughly vetting. Since September, I'm about 5-7% under the Major Indices, but for the past 20 months (how long I've been doing it) I'm leading them by 10-15%, with recent gains over the past 6 weeks. I don't allow myself quarterly or bi-annual changes, which has hurt me quite a bit, this year. But that's the game I chose to play. So I'm definitely not smarter. I just prefer slower actions, considering the HFT's have a monopoly on the fast actions. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

ARR is another example of how an investment can look great on paper until a large government changes their monetary policy. Also see gold and silver. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

Alex, I wasn't thrilled with the fundamentals, but It looked like it was at least break-even after the yield (ATT 18%). Then again, it was just a little to fill left over allotment; 305 in, current value 190, so down 37%. Overall impact on the portfolio -0.57% - OCoG of FF, Jimminy

That's cool. Yeah, I'd talk about what I've been doing this year, but I don't want it in the public domain. - Scoble, Alex Scoble

Yeah, mine it doesn't matter, becomes I have no real interest. - OCoG of FF, Jimminy