Early Epidemic Dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola Outbreak: Estimates Derived with a Simple Two-Parameter Model – PLOS Currents Outbreaks - http://currents.plos.org/outbrea...
Sep 10, 2014
from
The model (solid line) predicts lots of ebola cases; the observed infections (shaded gray bars) matches the model pretty well. Their model suggests Guinea and Sierra Leone will flatten out but Liberia will still be growing, unless there's some intervention.
- Amit Patel
(I haven't read the paper; I'm guessing this based on the graphs)
- Amit Patel
I don't like where the curve leads.
- Stephen Mack
I would bet it's a sigmoidal curve: there will be an inflection point where the slope starts leveling off. But the incidence rate at the plateau is going to be berserk.
- Victor Ganata
Yes, it's always a sigmoidal curve … we just don't know where it will plateau
- Amit Patel