currently 22.5%, details https://www.intrade.com/v4... \\ Another indicator is the USDIRR http://finance.yahoo.com/q... NB: "Iran's rial currency has declined 40% to 55% against the dollar on the black market since December. Iranian inflation, meanwhile, now exceeds 20% a month, according to the Central Bank. While the rial has been falling for almost a year, the latest drop appeared to be triggered by a recent U.S. announcement that it would penalize companies that do business with Iran's Central Bank, and a proposed plan to ban Iranian oil purchases in the European Union later this year. The rial was changing hands at 16,000 to 17,000 in recent days, down from 11,000 to 12,000 in December." http://online.wsj.com/article... - Adriano

Leon Panetta stated that Iran would be able to reach nuclear-weapons capabilities within a year... Q: "Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack? Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran’s nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack? Can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?" Full details NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2012... - Adriano

11 Feb spike to 45% -- media portrays the light, now yellow for Israel, will turn red after the November elections in the US. - Adriano

8 March update: spiked up to 60% in the interim, but leveling out around 40% since Netanyahu personally gives Obama the Book of Esther, http://ff.im/SH5jI - Adriano

30 September update: dramatic drop to 17%. Worth reading in full: http://world.time.com/2012... "Even a conservative strike on a handful of Iran’s nuclear facilities could kill or injure 5,000 to 80,000 people. The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble, a report written by an Iranian-American scientist with expertise in industrial nuclear-waste management, notes that a number of Iran’s sites are located directly atop or near major civilian centers. One key site that would almost certainly be targeted in a bombing campaign, the uranium-conversion facility at Isfahan, houses 371 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride and is located on the city’s doorstep; toxic plumes released from a strike would reach the city center within an hour, killing or injuring as many as 70,000 and exposing over 300,000 to radioactive material. These plumes would "destroy their lungs, blind them, severely burn their skin and damage other tissues and vital organs." The report’s predictions for long-term toxicity and fatalities are equally stark. "The numbers are alarming," says Khosrow Semnani, the report’s author, "we’re talking about a catastrophe in the same class as Bhopal and Chernobyl." Beyond those initially killed in a potential strike, the Iranian government’s lack of readiness for handling wide-scale radiation exposure could exponentially raise the death toll." - Adriano

2 Oct: currently USDIRR in Iran is officially set at 12,260 -- however, the rial is trading between 35,500 to 40,000. "The [Central Bank] announced that people who hold dollar accounts would no longer have access to their money in dollars and the bank would compensate them in rials at the official rate." The official rate is restricted to imports of food and medicine. http://online.wsj.com/article... - Adriano